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 033 
 WTNT44 KNHC 220237
 TCDAT4
  
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012
 
 WHILE NADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WARM CORE AND A VIGOROUS
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST 15 HOURS OR SO.  WHAT
 CONVECTION THAT CURRENTLY REMAINS IS IN POORLY-DEFINED BANDS TO THE
 SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
 REALLY FIT THE DEFINITION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO IT IS
 DECLARED TO BE POST-TROPICAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50
 KT DUE TO A LACK OF DATA NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THIS COULD BE A
 LITTLE GENEROUS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 165/11.  NADINE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
 A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST.  A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
 MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THERE ARE TWO FUTURE TRACK SCENARIOS FOR
 NADINE OR ITS REMNANTS.  THE FIRST IS THAT ENOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS
 NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO STEER IT GENERALLY EASTWARD.  THIS
 SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND FLORIDA
 STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE SECOND IS THAT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING
 DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND STEERS IT IN A GENERALLY WEST-
 NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...
 GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE
 NOTED THAT THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...
 UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO
 SCENARIOS... MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH WILL COME TO PASS. 
 THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE EASTWARD SCENARIO FROM THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A SLOW FORWARD MOTION DUE TO THE VERY
 LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 24 HOURS.
  
 THIS MAY NOT BE THE LAST HURRAH FOR NADINE.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
 TOWARD WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL
 MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
 THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST THE
 SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND RE-ACQUIRE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW
 A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT
 POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD UNDER THE
 RIDGE.  EVEN IF THIS TRANSITION DOES NOT OCCUR...THE MAJORITY OF
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN NADINE AS A VIGOROUS CYCLONE THROUGH
 THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS CHANGED
 LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 THIS WILL BY THE LAST ADVISORY ON NADINE BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
 CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/0300Z 31.9N  26.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  22/1200Z 31.0N  26.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  23/0000Z 30.5N  25.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  23/1200Z 30.7N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  24/0000Z 31.4N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  25/0000Z 32.5N  24.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  26/0000Z 32.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  27/0000Z 33.0N  20.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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