101 
 WTNT44 KNHC 190831
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
 500 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012
  
 NADINE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE.
 THE CENTER IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND MOST OF THE
 ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS WITHIN A CURVED BAND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
 CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
 KNOTS.  
 
 IF THE DIAGNOSIS OF NADINE IS DIFFICULT...THE FORECAST IS EVEN MORE
 SO AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN A STRONGLY
 SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOL WATERS.  THIS NORMALLY WOULD LEAD
 TO WEAKENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS
 KEEP NADINE AS A STRONG CYCLONE...AND EVEN STRENGTHEN IT A LITTLE
 BIT. I AM ASSUMING THAT THIS IS DUE TO THE FORECAST INTERACTION
 WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IN FACT...THE GFS ASSUMES
 WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. ON THE CONTRARY...THE ECMWF MAKES
 NADINE THE PREVAILING ONE. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
 BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW DRIFTING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AZORES FOR
 A FEW DAYS. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SOME CONTINUITY
 AND ASSUMES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LOSE ALL ITS ASSOCIATED
 CONVECTION OVER THE COOLER WATERS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
 CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  
 
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT IS GRADUALLY
 TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD-MOVING
 OR MEANDERING CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH OR EAST OF THE AZORES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/0900Z 36.4N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  19/1800Z 37.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  20/0600Z 36.6N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  20/1800Z 35.5N  29.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  21/0600Z 34.5N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  22/0600Z 34.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  23/0600Z 34.0N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  24/0600Z 34.0N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA