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 673 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 292148 CCA
 TCDEP5
 
 Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number  15...Corrected
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018
 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018
 
 Corrected WMO header in fourth paragraph
 
 The satellite presentation of Miriam has significantly improved over
 the past 12 hours or so.  Several microwave images received since
 the release of the previous advisory revealed a significant
 increase in organization with convection wrapping nearly
 completely around the center.  Recent visible satellite images have
 shown hints of an eye, but the surrounding convective tops have
 warmed somewhat.  Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity
 estimates all support hurricane strength, and the initial intensity
 is increased to 65 kt for this advisory.
 
 Satellite fixes show that Miriam has slowed down and is moving
 westward or 270/8 kt. The hurricane is near the western edge of
 the subtropical ridge and is forecast to turn west-northwestward
 very soon.  A large mid- to upper-level trough located northeast of
 the Hawaiian Islands should cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then
 northward over the next couple of days, and the dynamical models
 are in good agreement through 72 hours.  After that time, model
 differences remain as the ECMWF continues to take a deeper cyclone
 much faster northward than the remainder of the guidance.  The NHC
 forecast continues to lean toward the solution of a weaker cyclone
 turning northwestward or west-northwestward near the end of the
 forecast period.  The updated NHC forecast is once again south of
 the model consensus at days 4 and 5 and is in best agreement with
 the GFS ensemble mean.
 
 Miriam has about another 12-24 h over warm water and within a light
 to moderate wind shear environment in which to strengthen.  After
 that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is
 anticipated and Miriam is forecast to weaken fairly quickly
 between 36 and 72 hours.  Miriam should reach SSTs below 26C by
 96 h and should degenerate into a remnant low by that time.
 
 Miriam will move into the Central Pacific Basin shortly and this is
 last NHC advisory on this system.  Future information on Miriam can
 be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
 Center beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header
 HFOTCPCP3, WMO header WTPA33 PHFO, and on the web at
 http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/2100Z 14.0N 139.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  30/0600Z 14.4N 140.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  30/1800Z 15.3N 141.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  31/0600Z 16.7N 141.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  01/1800Z 21.5N 142.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  02/1800Z 24.7N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/1800Z 27.0N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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