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 810 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 262031
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018
 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018
 
 Miriam continues to gradually become better organized.  The latest
 visible satellite images show a well-defined curved band that wraps
 about three-quarters of the way around the center.  Despite the
 improvement in organization, very recent ASCAT passes show maximum
 winds of about 35 kt.  Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at
 40 kt as a compromise between the ASCAT data and the higher
 Dvorak-based estimates.
 
 The tropical storm is moving westward at about 12 kt.  This westward
 motion should continue during the next few days while a deep-layer
 ridge remains anchored to the north of the tropical cyclone.  After
 that time, the storm is forecast to turn to the northwest and then
 the north as a mid- to upper-level low causes a significant break in
 the subtropical ridge.  Although the models agree on this scenario,
 there are some differences in where and when Miriam will make the
 northward turn.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
 guidance envelope, near the consensus aids.
 
 Steady strengthening is likely during the next couple of days due to
 the favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high levels
 of moisture, and warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C.  The latest intensity
 models all show Miriam becoming a hurricane, and the HWRF model
 shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength.  The NHC
 intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the
 model guidance, and it is in best agreement with HFIP Corrected
 Consensus Approach model.  By the end of the forecast period, when
 Miriam begins gaining latitude, slow weakening is expected due
 to a decrease in SSTs and higher shear.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/2100Z 13.6N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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