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 565 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 261438
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018
 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018
 
 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
 to become better organized this morning, with a significant increase
 in banding noted in conventional satellite imagery.  An earlier
 AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed the increase in banding, but
 the low-level center was located near the northeastern portion of
 the main convective mass.  A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of
 T2.5 (35 k) was the basis for the 1200 UTC synoptic intensity, but
 with the continued increase in organization, the initial wind speed
 for this advisory has been set to 40 kt.
 
 Miriam is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The tropical storm should
 remain on a general westward heading during the next few days while
 it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge.  The orientation of
 the ridge may shift more west-southwestward within the next day or
 so, which could steer the tropical storm on a track slightly south
 of due west.  The bulk of the dynamical model guidance has shifted
 southward, so the NHC forecast track has been adjusted accordingly
 through the first 3 days.  After that time, a weakness in the
 subtropical ridge between 140W-145W longitude is expected to cause
 Miriam to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end
 of the forecast period.  The latter portion of the official forecast
 is similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with
 the HFIP corrected consensus model.
 
 The environment ahead of Miriam is expected to remain favorable for
 strengthening.  The tropical storm will be traversing SSTs of 27-28C
 and within low vertical wind shear conditions.   The NHC intensity
 forecast calls for steady intensification during the next few days
 and is at the upper-end of the intensity guidance.  Although the
 various rapid intensification prediction techniques are not
 particularly bullish, perhaps due to the low initial intensity of
 the cyclone, it would not be surprising if the tropical storm went
 through a period of rapid intensification within the next couple of
 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the more aggressive
 HWRF and HMON dynamical models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/1500Z 13.2N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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