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 276 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 260842
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018
 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018
 
 Various satellite data over the past several hours, including recent
 ASCAT scatterometer surface-wind data, indicate that the
 well-defined low pressure area located about 1000 nmi southwest of
 the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much
 better organized, and has developed into a tropical depression. A
 small CDO-like feature has formed over the well-defined center
 depicted in the ASCAT data, and a recent burst of cold cloud tops of
 -80C have also developed just west of the center. The initial
 intensity of 30 kt is based on 0458Z and 0558Z ASCAT wind data,
 which indicated winds of 28-30 kt were located 35-40 nmi west and
 southwest of the low-level center.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The depression is expected
 to remain south of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge for the
 next 96 hours, resulting in a general westward motion at a slightly
 faster forward speed. By day 5, the cyclone is forecast to move into
 a break in the ridge created by a broad mid-/upper-level trough that
 is forecast to dig southward out of the northern Pacific between
 140W-145W longitude. The forecast track lies essentially down the
 middle of the guidance envelope, which is just north of the
 consensus model TVCE and the GFS model, but south of the ECMWF and
 UKMET models. The HRWF and HMON models were not being available for
 the TVCE consensus on this cycle, so some significant adjustments to
 the track in the next advisory may be required.
 
 The cyclone has a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 35-40 nmi based
 on the recent ASCAT data. The combination of the modest RMW, low
 vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a very moist mid-level
 environment, and sea-surface temperatures above 28 deg C, favors
 steady intensification and even the possibility of rapid
 strengthening. Since this is the first forecast, however, the
 intensity forecast is on the conservative side and calls for a
 climatological increase of one T-number or 20 kt every 24 h for the
 next 48 hours, which is above all of the intensity guidance except
 for the Navy COAMPS (CTCI) model. By 96-120 hours, the intensity is
 leveled off due to possible entrainment of drier air and an increase
 in southwesterly vertical wind shear.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/0900Z 13.3N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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