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 901 
 WTPA43 PHFO 021443
 TCDCP3
  
 Tropical Depression Miriam Discussion Number  30
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152018
 500 AM HST Sun Sep 02 2018
  
 The center of Miriam has been completely devoid of deep 
 convection for almost 24 hours as nearly 50 kt of southwesterly
 vertical wind shear has taken its toll on the system. The latest
 subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from
 unclassifiable by SAB to T1.5/25 kt by JTWC, and T2.0/30 kt by
 PHFO. The most recent UW-CIMSS ADT yielded an estimated intensity 
 of 25 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial 
 intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory.
  
 The initial motion is 320 deg / 12 kt. A broad mid- to upper-level
 trough to the northwest of Miriam will maintain the very strong
 vertical wind shear during the next couple of days. Since Miriam
 has transitioned to a shallow low-level cloud swirl, it is now 
 being steered more toward the northwest under the influence of
 a deep subtropical ridge located to the northeast. This
 northwestward motion will likely persist through Monday. The latest
 forecast track is close to the previous advisory, and remains near
 the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the consensus model
 guidance, TVCE and HCCA. Under the hostile vertical wind shear and
 decreasing SSTs, Miriam will continue weakening. The latest
 intensity forecast weakens Miriam at a slightly slower rate than
 almost all of the guidance, and is closest to the GFS output. Note
 that Miriam is forecast to become a remnant low later today,
 followed by dissipation late Monday.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/1500Z 26.1N 143.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 27.3N 145.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  03/1200Z 28.6N 147.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  04/0000Z 29.7N 149.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston
  
 
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