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 675 
 WTPA43 PHFO 020858
 TCDCP3
  
 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number  29
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152018
 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 01 2018
 
 The latest estimates from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS indicate Miriam is
 being hammered by 50 to 60 kt of southwesterly vertical wind
 shear. As a result, the totally exposed and well defined low-level
 circulation center (LLCC) is evident in infrared satellite imagery
 this evening. The last hints of deep convection associated with
 Miriam are now more than 130 n mi north-northeast of the LLCC.
 The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from
 T2.0/30 kt from JTWC and SAB to T2.5/35 kt from HFO.  Final T
 numbers from all agencies are lower, and the CIMSS ADT yielded an
 estimate of 26 kt. An ASCAT pass from 0557z showed a large area of
 30 kt winds east and northeast of the LLCC. Based on a blend of
 these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for 
 this advisory.
  
 The initial motion is 330 deg / 11 kt. A broad mid- to upper-level
 trough to the northwest of Miriam will maintain the very strong
 vertical wind shear during the next couple of days. As Miriam
 becomes increasingly shallow under the effects of the shear, the
 system will likely be steered more toward the northwest under a
 greater influence of a deep ridge located far to the northeast.
 Once the turn is made later tonight, the general northwestward
 motion will likely persist through Monday. The latest forecast
 track is close to the previous advisory, and remains near the 
 middle of the guidance envelope and close to the consensus model
 guidance, TVCE and HCCA. Under the hostile vertical wind shear and
 decreasing SSTs, Miriam will continue weakening. The latest 
 intensity forecast weakens Miriam at a slightly slower rate than
 almost all of the guidance, and is closest to the GFS model. Note
 that Miriam is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday afternoon or
 evening, followed by dissipation on Monday.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0900Z 25.3N 142.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 26.5N 144.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 27.9N 146.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  03/1800Z 29.0N 148.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston
  
 
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