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 933 
 WTPA43 PHFO 020246
 TCDCP3
  
 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number  28
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152018
 500 PM HST Sat Sep 01 2018
  
 The satellite presentation of Miriam continues to steadily
 deteriorate under the effects of 45 to 55 kt of southwesterly
 vertical wind shear. The center has been completely exposed during
 daylight hours, and a diminishing cluster of deep convection in the
 north quadrant has been pushed off to more than 100 n mi from the
 center. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from
 2.5/35 kt from JTWC and SAB to 3.0/45 kt from HFO. Final T numbers
 from all agencies are lower, and CIMSS ADT yielded an estimate of 32
 kt. Given these inputs and an 1844Z ASCAT-A pass that showed wind
 retrievals near 45 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.
 The ASCAT-A pass was also used to adjust the wind radii.
 
 The initial motion is north-northwest (330 degrees) at 11 kt. A mid
 to upper level trough to the northwest of Miriam will continue to
 produce very strong vertical wind shear during the next couple of
 days. As Miriam becomes increasingly shallow under the effects of
 the shear, the system will be steered toward the northwest under a
 greater influence of a deep ridge located far to the northeast. Once
 the turn is made tonight, the general northwestward motion will
 persist through dissipation on Monday. The forecast track was nudged
 to the left of the prior advisory and lies near the middle of the
 guidance envelope near TVCE and HCCA. Under the hostile vertical
 wind shear and decreasing SSTs, Miriam is expected to weaken to a
 post-tropical remnant low on Sunday. The official forecast weakens
 Miriam rather quickly, though at a slightly slower rate than almost
 all guidance, and is closest to AVNI.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0300Z 24.2N 142.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 25.6N 143.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 27.0N 145.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  03/1200Z 28.2N 147.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Wroe
  
 
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