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 465 
 WTPA43 PHFO 012038
 TCDCP3
  
 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number  27
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152018
 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 01 2018
  
 Under the effects of strong vertical wind shear, the low level
 center of Miriam is now completely exposed, and a diminishing amount
 of deep convection is confined to the north quadrant. Subjective
 Dvorak current intensity estimates came in at 3.0/45 kt from HFO
 and JTWC, while SAB gave a 3.5/55 kt. All final T numbers were 
 lower. CIMSS ADT yielded a 3.0, and its earlier SATCON from 1642Z
 produced 48 kt. Given the significant decay in the satellite
 presentation, the initial intensity will be lowered to 50 kt,
 making Miriam a rapidly weakening tropical storm.
 
 The initial motion is north-northwest (345 degrees) at 11 kt, and a
 turn toward the northwest is under way. A mid to upper level trough
 to the northwest of Miriam is producing strong, southwesterly
 vertical wind shear of 40 to 50 kt according to analyses, and the
 shear will likely continue to increase through the next 18 hours. As
 Miriam becomes increasingly shallow and less intense under the
 effects of the shear, the system will be steered toward the
 northwest under a greater influence of a deep ridge located far to
 the northeast. The general northwestward motion will persist through
 the duration of the tropical cyclone's existence, which will be a
 few days at best. The forecast track lies just right of the middle
 of the guidance envelope between HCCA and TVCE. Under the hostile
 vertical wind shear and decreasing SSTs, Miriam is expected to
 weaken to a post-tropical remnant low on Sunday, with dissipation
 likely on Monday. The official forecast weakens Miriam at a slightly
 slower rate than most guidance through the next 36 hours and is
 close to HMNI and AVNI.
 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/2100Z 23.3N 141.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 24.7N 142.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  02/1800Z 26.3N 144.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  03/0600Z 27.6N 146.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  03/1800Z 28.7N 148.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Wroe
  
 
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