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 331 
 WTPA43 PHFO 310253
 TCDCP3
  
 Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number  20
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152018
 500 PM HST Thu Aug 30 2018
  
 Deep convection has been pulsing and producing bursts of lightning 
 near the center of Miriam today, but after a brief sighting this 
 morning, an eye has not reappeared in traditional satellite
 imagery. Dvorak current intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/GTW remain
 4.5/77 kt, and with little overall change in the satellite
 presentation from earlier today, the initial intensity will remain
 75 kt for this advisory. 
 
 The initial motion estimate is 350/07 kt. A motion toward the north 
 will continue over the next 36 to 48 h, as Miriam is carried by the 
 gradient between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a deep-layer 
 trough to the north. Decreasing SSTs and increasingly strong 
 southwesterly vertical wind shear lie along the forecast path, and 
 Miriam's time as a tropical cyclone is limited. Gradual weakening
 in the short term is expected to be followed by a more rapid rate
 of decay between 24 h and 72 h, and Miriam is expected to become a
 post-tropical remnant low on day 3, dissipating by day 5. As Miriam 
 weakens, it is expected to turn toward the northwest as it becomes 
 shallow and steered by the low-level trade flow. Track model 
 guidance is in better agreement as compared to 24 h ago, with the 
 GFS shifting markedly poleward over the past several runs, closer
 to the other reliable dynamical aids. The CPHC track forecast was 
 shifted to the right of the previous and very closely mimics TVCE 
 and HCCA. The intensity forecast follows trends presented by all 
 reliable guidance. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  31/0300Z 16.5N 141.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  31/1200Z 17.9N 141.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  01/0000Z 19.7N 141.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  01/1200Z 21.5N 141.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  02/0000Z 23.2N 143.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  03/0000Z 26.6N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  04/0000Z 30.0N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard
  
 
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