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 951 
 WTPA43 PHFO 302043
 TCDCP3
  
 Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number  19
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152018
 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 30 2018
  
 Miriam's satellite appearance improved early this morning, when a 
 banding type eye appeared in traditional satellite imagery shortly 
 after a well-developed eye was evident in a 1326Z GPM microwave 
 overpass. Cold cloud tops briefly encircled a portion of the eye, 
 but the eye is now cloud-filled once again. Subjective Dvorak 
 intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/GTW trended up to 4.5/77 kt, and 
 the initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been increased 
 to 75 kt. The initial motion estimate is 330/7 kt. 
 
 The window for additional strengthening is expected to soon close
 as Miriam moves north into an area of very strong vertical wind
 shear and decreasing SSTs. Miriam will move nearly due north in the
 deep southerly flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to the 
 north. This gradient will also increase vertical wind shear to near 
 30 kt in 24-36 h. SSTs currently near 28C will drop below 26C after 
 48 h, with the cumulative effects leading to a fairly fast rate of 
 weakening after tomorrow. The shallow remnant of Miriam is then 
 expected to make a turn toward the northwest, primarily steered by 
 the low-level trade wind flow, and is expected to be close to 
 dissipation by the end of the forecast period. The official track 
 forecast is on the left hand side of the guidance envelope, but has 
 been nudged to the right at almost all time frames, to be more in 
 line with the TVCE and HCCA ensembles. The intensity forecast 
 follows trends presented by all reliable guidance.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  30/2100Z 15.7N 141.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  31/0600Z 17.0N 141.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  31/1800Z 18.7N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 20.4N 141.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 22.1N 142.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 25.0N 145.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  03/1800Z 28.0N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/1800Z 30.0N 154.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard
  
 
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