761 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 271433
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
 800 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2012
  
 ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MIRIAM IS
 WEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
 CONVECTION IS A SMALL PATCH LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
 THE CENTER.  BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...
 WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.  SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES AND A RATHER HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
 WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.  MIRIAM IS THEN
 EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...WITH
 DISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
 MODEL AND THE LGEM.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/5.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
 MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
 STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
 THE NORTH.  AFTERWARD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A LITTLE
 LEFT OF DUE WEST IN THE WEAK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY MARINE-LAYER
 STEERING CURRENT BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS...OR LESS.  THE NHC
 FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
 THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/1500Z 22.2N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  28/0000Z 22.5N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  28/1200Z 22.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  29/0000Z 22.4N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  29/1200Z 22.3N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  30/1200Z 22.0N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS