595 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 171440
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006
  
 MIRIAM CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALL
 OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED
 LOW LEVEL CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA
 CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 29 KT AND GUSTS TO 45
 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT
 INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. MIRIAM WILL BE MOVING INTO
 AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A
 REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS...GFDL AND
 FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 A 0537 UTC AMSU PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER. THE FORWARD 
 MOTION IS ONLY 015/4...SINCE MIRIAM IS EMBEDED WITHIN RATHER WEAK
 STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN MORE
 TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT NUDGED A
 LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED
 WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/1500Z 19.2N 113.9W    40 KT
  12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.9N 113.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     18/1200Z 20.7N 113.9W    35 KT
  36HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 114.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     19/1200Z 22.5N 115.3W    30 KT
  72HR VT     20/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     21/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/CANGIALOSI