765
FOPZ14 KNHC 162033
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA CLARION 34 32 2(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 1(36)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 187N 1137W 34 31 16(47) 2(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50)
12 187N 1137W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
12 187N 1137W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 197N 1130W 34 4 22(26) 9(35) 3(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40)
24 197N 1130W 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
24 197N 1130W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 209N 1125W 34 1 6( 7) 15(22) 10(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35)
36 209N 1125W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
36 209N 1125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 221N 1129W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 15(23) 6(29) X(29) 1(30)
48 221N 1129W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
48 221N 1129W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 235N 1145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 2(19) X(19)
72 235N 1145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
72 235N 1145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 255N 1155W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
96 255N 1155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 255N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 275N 1155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)
120 275N 1155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 275N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 40 35 25 20
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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