607 
 WTNT43 KNHC 092033
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
 500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012
  
 THE MIXING EVENT ACTIVE WITHIN THE INNER CORE OF MICHAEL APPEARS TO
 BE NEAR COMPLETION....AND A TRANSFORMATION HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE EYE
 OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND CLOUD- FILLED SINCE THIS
 MORNING...WITH ITS DIAMETER MEASURING 30 N MI AFTER BEING AROUND 10
 N MI ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NO LONGER
 SYMMETRIC...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AT 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ADT CI
 VALUE IS 5.2. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KT IN AGREEMENT
 WITH A BLEND OF THESE DATA.
  
 MICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING DUE WEST SINCE THIS MORNING...AND HAS
 EVEN WOBBLED A BIT SOUTH OF WEST IN RECENT HOURS.  THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE...A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE...IS 270/04.  SOUTH OF A
 SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE...MICHAEL SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WESTWARD
 TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND THAT TIME
 AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
 NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
 EXPECTED IN 36-72 HOURS...AS THE SAME SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING
 LESLIE TO RECURVE APPROACHES MICHAEL.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
 AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWING
 THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND TO THE RIGHT AT 72 HOURS IN BEST
 AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.
 
 MICHAEL SHOULD LEAVE THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE
 AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE TO
 STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
 LESLIE.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY OVER A NARROW LAYER
 IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...AND MICHAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER ONLY
 GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING
 IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
 BY 48 HOURS HOURS ONCE MICHAEL ENCOUNTERS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
 SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
 CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
 WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/2100Z 33.6N  43.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 33.6N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 34.2N  46.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z 36.4N  47.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z 39.9N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  12/1800Z 47.2N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
 
 608 
 WTNT42 KNHC 092033
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
 500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012
  
 ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.5 AT
 18Z...SINCE THEN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT AND THE
 BANDING HAS BECOME LESS SOLID.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
 50 KT.  LESLIE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...WHICH
 SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
 CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  BOTH THE TROPICAL AND
 GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT LESLIE WILL BE AT OR AT LEAST NEAR
 HURRICANE STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO NEWFOUNDLAND.  AFTER 36
 HOURS...SSTS COOL AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY...BUT
 THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
 VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS. 
 BASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF FIELDS...LESLIE WILL BE MERGING WITH A
 FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
 FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT
 FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AS A
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW
 ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-4
 DAYS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN
 THE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  
  
 LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
 AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE
 U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/2100Z 33.4N  62.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 35.1N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 38.5N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z 44.1N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z 51.0N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  12/1800Z 60.0N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  13/1800Z 63.5N   9.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  14/1800Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN