383 
 WTNT43 KNHC 090848
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
 500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012
  
 THE EYE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE REMAINS DISTINCT AND COLD CLOUD TOPS
 SURROUND THE CENTER...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY BREAKS IN
 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND
 MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL IS A LITTLE WIDER THAN IT
 WAS LAST NIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE ESSENTIALLY
 UNCHANGED...THEREFORE...THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85
 KT.
  
 MICHAEL STILL LIES OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE
 UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
 CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND SATELLITE
 DERIVED WINDS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...IN PART ASSOCIATED
 WITH THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO THE WEST
 OF MICHAEL. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE HURRICANE
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. IN 2
 TO 3 DAYS...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO
 NEAR 30 KT AND MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOL WATERS BY THEN.
 THESE HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
 AND A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
 THE GUIDANCE.
  
 MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
 EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND
 TONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD.
 MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES
 INTO STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
 TO THE EAST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
 MICHAEL BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE
 TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE WEST AND LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO
 THE TVCA CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0900Z 33.8N  42.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  09/1800Z 33.9N  43.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  10/0600Z 34.0N  44.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  10/1800Z 34.6N  46.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  11/0600Z 36.5N  47.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  12/0600Z 45.5N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI