203 
 WTNT43 KNHC 061439
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
 1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012
  
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL THIS
 MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING OF THE EYE EVIDENT IN ENHANCED
 INFRARED IMAGERY.  A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ADT VALUE IS THE BASIS
 FOR MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT.  THERE IS A
 RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO
 STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT
 BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BE EITHER DUE TO A
 MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
 NORTHWEST...OR THE RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
 LESLIE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS
 AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.  OF COURSE...THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW BOTH HURRICANES TRACK
 WITH TIME.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A
 TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT
 24-36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW. 
 SUBSEQUENTLY...AN INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GFS AND ECMWF
 SOLUTIONS...RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY...STILL EXISTS
 BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE FROM A
 MID-LATITUDE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFS
 INDICATES MORE RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
 AND SIDES WITH THE TVCA CONSENSUS...WHICH BASICALLY IS BETWEEN THE
 ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/1500Z 30.1N  41.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 30.6N  41.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 31.2N  41.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 31.9N  42.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  08/1200Z 32.4N  42.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  09/1200Z 33.4N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  10/1200Z 35.2N  45.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  11/1200Z 38.0N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS