202 
 WTNT43 KNHC 060500
 TCDAT3
  
 HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
 100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012
  
 MICHAEL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE
 BECOMING EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND
 SPEED IS SET TO 90 KT...IN LINE WITH SPECIAL 0415 UTC DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
 ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND IS
 CLOSEST TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BASED OFF OF THE
 ECMWF FIELDS. THE FORECAST IS THEN BLENDED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
 BY DAY 5. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED...AND ONLY
 SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE REQUIRED THROUGH 36 H.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0500Z 29.4N  42.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 29.8N  41.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 31.0N  41.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 31.5N  42.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 32.7N  43.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  10/0000Z 34.0N  44.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  11/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN