637 
 WTNT43 KNHC 052033
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
 500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012
  
 A RECENT 1818 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM THE NRL TROPICAL
 CYCLONE WEBSITE REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE 85
 GHZ COMPOSITE AND MUCH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
 THE CIRCULATION.  THE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...HAS BECOME
 A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED
 BY A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60 KT BASED ON THE
 WELL-DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
 WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SOME
 TODAY...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN OF
 THE CYCLONE...BUT THIS COULD BE A TEMPORARY TREND. THE SHIPS
 INTENSITY MODEL...AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...INDICATE
 THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN FURTHER BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.
 THEREFORE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH DAY 5 AS THE WELL-
 DEVELOPED OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LESLIE BEGINS TO
 IMPEDE THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTFLOW OF MICHAEL. THE NHC INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
 IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
 CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
 FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AROUND 36-48 HOURS...THE
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL SHOW MICHAEL RESPONDING TO THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH BY TURNING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
 NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...MICHAEL
 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW ITS FORWARD
 SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE...AND IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/2100Z 28.8N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 29.3N  42.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  06/1800Z 30.0N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  07/0600Z 30.6N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  07/1800Z 31.0N  41.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  08/1800Z 32.1N  42.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  09/1800Z 33.2N  44.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  10/1800Z 34.8N  46.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS