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 095 
 WTNT43 KNHC 042052
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
 500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012
  
 MICHAEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH
 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD
 TOPS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE
 THAT A CURVED BAND NOW WRAPS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND
 THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 45 KT...BASED ON
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND DATA FROM AN
 EARLIER PARTIAL ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 35 TO 40 KT WIND
 VECTORS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SMALL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO.  AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
 CUT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MICHAEL.  AS THAT OCCURS...A NARROW
 RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A
 REDUCTION OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT
 A LITTLE LOWER THAN...THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
 MICHAEL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
 TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
 MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER THIS TOUGH
 BYPASSES MICHAEL...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
 ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
 EASTWARD IN A FEW DAYS...IT SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO TURN
 NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON 
 THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/2100Z 27.5N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 28.1N  43.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  05/1800Z 28.8N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  06/0600Z 29.4N  43.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  06/1800Z 29.9N  42.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  07/1800Z 30.9N  43.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  08/1800Z 32.0N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  09/1800Z 33.5N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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