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 930 
 WTNT43 KNHC 041437
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012
  
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN AREA
 OF CONCENTRATED DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...HOWEVER...EXISTS ONLY ON THE EASTERN
 SEMICIRCLE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...
 SAB AND CIMSS ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING AN INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
 MICHAEL...THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 SEASON. ONLY 2005 AND
 2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER.
  
 MICHAEL IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
 AN ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
 IN FACT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE SHEAR COULD LEAD TO
 WEAKENING. IF MICHAEL SURVIVES A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS AN
 OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LOW FORMS SOUTH OF
 THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
 THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND ALLOWS
 SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT NOT
 AS HIGH AS INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.
  
 MICHAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4
 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENTS WEST OF
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE
 TROUGH TO BYPASS MICHAEL...LEAVING THE STORM WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
 FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MICHAEL MEANDERING BETWEEN THE
 NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE
 GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY IN SPEED...MOST OF
 THE MODELS MOVE MICHAEL ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TREND. THE NHC
 FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/1500Z 27.0N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  05/0000Z 27.7N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  05/1200Z 28.5N  44.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  06/0000Z 29.0N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  06/1200Z 29.5N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  07/1200Z 30.5N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  08/1200Z 31.5N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  09/1200Z 33.0N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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