914 
 WTNT44 KNHC 210837
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
 500 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013
  
 EVEN THOUGH MELISSA IS CURRENTLY OVER QUITE COOL 21 C SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND IS
 HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE MAIN REASONS THE STORM IS
 ABLE TO REMAIN TROPICAL OVER THE COOL WATER IS BECAUSE OF THE
 COMBINED FACTORS OF A COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR.
 THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS MAINLY
 CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. MOST OF THE
 MODELS SHOW MELISSA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
 COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL
 CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES OVER
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 20 C. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES
 POST-TROPICAL...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WITH DISSIPATION
 EXPECTED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
  
 MELISSA CONTINUES TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KT EMBEDDED IN
 THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO
 THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
 NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...FOLLOWING THE LATEST
 TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.
  
 GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
 CENTRAL AZORES LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL
 CHARACTERISTICS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 39.1N  38.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 40.2N  33.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 41.5N  27.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  22/1800Z 42.2N  22.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  23/0600Z 42.2N  19.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  24/0600Z 40.0N  16.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI