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 967 
 WTNT44 KNHC 281443
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007
 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
 THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
 THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 THE CYCLONE HAS DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH WELL
 ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. A SHIP LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER
 REPORTED 29 KNOTS. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
 STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE THE SHEAR IS
 LOW.  
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A RATHER STRONG
 MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
 PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
 ENCOUNTER HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS
 SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH
 LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT MAKES THE DEPRESSION A
 HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. 
 
 NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MORE
 INFORMATION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AFTER THE 12Z RUN. 
 
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/1500Z 14.1N  26.5W    30 KT
  12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N  27.3W    35 KT
  24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N  28.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N  30.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N  31.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N  34.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N  36.0W    25 KT
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N  36.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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