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 982 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 220230
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
 
 MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER
 ACTIVITY IS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
 CYCLONE.  MAX'S DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE NUMBERED...AS A
 CONTINUED SPINDOWN OVER COOL WATERS IS EXPECTED.  MAX IS FORECAST
 TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...IF
 PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED TOMORROW
 MORNING.
 
 STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME QUITE WEAK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 ABOUT 290/3.  A LARGE TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS LIKELY TO
 KEEP THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE QUITE WEAK
 DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS MAX WEAKENS...IT IS RESPONDING
 MAINLY TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...AND THERE IS ONLY AN
 ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  A MAINLY WESTWARD DRIFT
 IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY LITTLE MOTION
 THEREAFTER.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL TRACK.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0300Z 21.8N 121.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 122.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.6N 123.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     23/1200Z 21.3N 123.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 124.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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