931 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 200834
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005
 
 A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE
 HURRICANE...ALMOST LIKE AN OUTER EYEWALL.  HOWEVER MAX IS PROBABLY
 NOT A STRONG ENOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BE UNDERGOING A TRUE
 EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
 TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT. 
 MAX CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW PATTERN...BUT IT IS
 BEGINNING TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS.  THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS
 EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
 FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BEYOND 48
 HOURS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING MAY
 OCCUR THAN SHOWN HERE.
 
 INITIAL MOTION...320/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO
 THE FORECAST REASONING.  MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE
 SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. 
 GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE
 NORTH OF MAX.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
 WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
 WEAKENED CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
 FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 4 DAYS
 BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AT DAY 5...AT WHICH TIME THE NOGAPS TRACK
 SEEMS TO HAVE ADDED AN UNREALISTICALLY TOO FAR SOUTH COMPONENT OF
 MOTION TO THE CONSENSUS.
 
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A BIT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.
  
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0900Z 19.0N 118.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 119.4W    65 KT
  24HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W    60 KT
  36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N 121.6W    55 KT
  48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 122.7W    45 KT
  72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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