128 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 190317
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
  
 AN EARLIER AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT MAX HAD
 ABSORBED THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF LIDIA...NOW EMBEDDED IN A
 BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF MAX. SHORTWAVE
 INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE
 EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT
 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FORECAST
 INTENSITY CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE WITHIN A MARGINALLY
 FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  THEN...MAX
 SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER...24 DEGREES CELSIUS...WATERS AND
 SLOWLY WEAKEN.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/9. A MID- LAYER RIDGE
 EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS IS STEERING MAX IN A
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP- LAYER
 LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
 OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
 LIFT OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WEST...CAUSING MAX TO
 TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A
 CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS...AND SIMILAR
 TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0300Z 15.6N 115.4W    35 KT
  12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.3N 116.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W    45 KT
  36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.4N 119.9W    50 KT
  48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N 121.2W    50 KT
  72HR VT     22/0000Z 22.1N 123.7W    40 KT
  96HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N 131.0W    20 KT
  
  
 $$