062 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 182054
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
 
 LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF
 THE CYCLONE...AND A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
 DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. 18Z DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON
 THE ABOVE DATA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
 TROPICAL STORM MAX. MAX IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION LIDIA TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ABSORPTION OF LIDIA BY THE
 LARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 UNTIL THIS OCCURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/10. ONCE THE TWO CYCLONES
 BECOME ONE CIRCULATION...MAX IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS
 IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE
 TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIVE
 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CYCLONE
 REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THIS FORECAST REASONING
 FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF
 THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL FORECAST. 
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z 15.4N 114.6W    35 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.1N 116.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W    40 KT
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.1N 119.1W    45 KT
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W    45 KT
  72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     22/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N 127.0W    20 KT
  
  
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