319 
 WTNT44 KNHC 091456
 TCDAT4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016
 
 Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a cold
 front has wrapped around the southwestern portion of Matthew's
 circulation and the post-tropical cyclone is now analyzed as an
 extratropical low.  Despite the change in the cyclone's structure
 over the past 24 hours, Matthew continues to produce an area of very
 strong winds to the southwest and west of the center. Sustained
 winds of 55 to 60 kt with gusts above hurricane force were reported
 at several coastal marine observing stations near the Outer Banks of
 North Carolina this morning, and a recent dropsonde from the Global
 Hawk unmanned aircraft reported surface winds of 58 kt.  Based on
 these data, the initial intensity remains 65 kt.  The global models
 indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually weaken during
 the next 24 to 36 hours, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary in
 about 48 hours.
 
 Matthew is moving eastward at about 13 kt.  The low should continue
 moving eastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow during the
 next day or so.  The NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the
 ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models, and is similar to the previous
 advisory.
 
 Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled
 by non-tropical wind warnings.
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  Tropical-storm-force winds will continue over the North Carolina
 Outer Banks this afternoon, with gusts to near hurricane force
 possible during the next hour or two.  Storm surge flooding
 continues over portions of the Outer Banks.  Please see the
 Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
 areas at risk.
 
 2.  Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
 continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
 as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 35.2N  73.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  12H  10/0000Z 35.3N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  10/1200Z 35.7N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  11/0000Z 37.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  11/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
 
 134 
 WTNT44 KNHC 091456
 TCDAT4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016
 
 Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a cold
 front has wrapped around the southwestern portion of Matthew's
 circulation and the post-tropical cyclone is now analyzed as an
 extratropical low.  Despite the change in the cyclone's structure
 over the past 24 hours, Matthew continues to produce an area of very
 strong winds to the southwest and west of the center. Sustained
 winds of 55 to 60 kt with gusts above hurricane force were reported
 at several coastal marine observing stations near the Outer Banks of
 North Carolina this morning, and a recent dropsonde from the Global
 Hawk unmanned aircraft reported surface winds of 58 kt.  Based on
 these data, the initial intensity remains 65 kt.  The global models
 indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually weaken during
 the next 24 to 36 hours, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary in
 about 48 hours.
 
 Matthew is moving eastward at about 13 kt.  The low should continue
 moving eastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow during the
 next day or so.  The NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the
 ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models, and is similar to the previous
 advisory.
 
 Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled
 by non-tropical wind warnings.
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  Tropical-storm-force winds will continue over the North Carolina
 Outer Banks this afternoon, with gusts to near hurricane force
 possible during the next hour or two.  Storm surge flooding
 continues over portions of the Outer Banks.  Please see the
 Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the
 areas at risk.
 
 2.  Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
 continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products
 as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 35.2N  73.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  12H  10/0000Z 35.3N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  10/1200Z 35.7N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  11/0000Z 37.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  11/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown