005 
 WTNT44 KNHC 090249
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016
 
 A combination of satellite imagery, aircraft data, and coastal
 surface and radar observations indicate that Matthew is undergoing
 extratropical transition, and there is barely enough convection
 near the center to keep the system classified as a hurricane.
 However, SFMR data from an Air Force show hurricane-force winds to
 the southwest of the center, and based on this and the marginal
 convection Matthew remains a hurricane for this advisory.  The
 cyclone is likely to become post-tropical in 12 hours or less and
 become an extratropical frontal low by 24 hours. As this happens
 though, a band of strong winds forming in the western semicircle
 near eastern North Carolina and the adjacent waters should keep the
 intensity near 65 kt for the next 12 hours or so.  After that,
 Matthew should weaken and become absorbed within the frontal system
 between 48-72 hours. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update
 of the previous forecast.
 
 The initial motion is now 070/12.  Matthew is embedded in the
 mid-latitude westerly flow and this steering pattern is forecast to
 move the system east-northeastward and then eastward until
 dissipation.  The new forecast track is a little south of the
 previous track for the first 12 hours and a little north of it
 after that time.
 
 The forecast strength of the band of winds over the eastern North
 Carolina coastal area requires a northward extension of the
 hurricane watch.  Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia
 are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings.
 
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds
 are shifting to the west side of the circulation.  The winds are
 expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of
 eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during
 the next 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force
 winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico
 and Albemarle Sounds.  There is also an increased threat of storm
 surge in these areas.  Please see the Prototype Storm Surge
 Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0300Z 34.1N  76.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 34.6N  74.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  10/0000Z 34.4N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  10/1200Z 33.8N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  11/0000Z 33.0N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven