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 329 
 WTNT44 KNHC 061456
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016
 
 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
 improve, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection,
 and T-numbers are oscillating around 6.0 on the Dvorak scale.  Data
 from an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the
 hurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened.  The initial
 intensity is estimated at 120 kt, based mainly on SFMR data
 and an eyewall dropsonde.
 
 Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
 intensification today while Matthew approaches the east coast of
 Florida.  After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some
 weakening, and later in the period increasing shear should cause a
 more rapid decrease in winds. The NHC forecast is slightly above
 most of the guidance during the first 24 hours due to the recent
 intensification, and follows the weakening trend of the consensus
 thereafter.
 
 Aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or
 325 degrees at 10 kt. The steering flow has not changed and Matthew
 is expected to move around the western periphery of the subtropical
 ridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36
 hours. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward allowing
 the hurricane to move northward and then sharply turn eastward
 while it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. By
 the end of the forecast period the steering pattern is forecast
 to change again and a weakening cyclone is expected to turn
 southward.
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
 surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
 today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
 tonight.
 
 2.  Evacuations are not just a coastal event.  Strong winds will
 occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
 homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.
 
 3.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
 of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
 at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
 category higher than the winds near the surface.
 
 4.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
 to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
 South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
 any one location.  Only a small deviation of the track
 to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
 hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
 Georgia.  Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
 hurricane-force winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in
 impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
 northeast Georgia and South Carolina.
 
 5.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
 Matthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
 Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
 but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
 inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In
 addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
 out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
 potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
 Florida and Georgia.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/1500Z 25.1N  77.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 26.4N  79.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 28.3N  80.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 30.2N  81.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  08/1200Z 31.7N  80.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  09/1200Z 32.5N  76.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  10/1200Z 30.5N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  11/1200Z 28.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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