149 
 WTNT44 KNHC 040853
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016
 
 The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this
 morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has
 become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of
 hours. Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, the Air
 Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb
 flight level wind of 142 kt, and SFMR winds of 127 kt in the
 northeast quadrant.  During the final passage through the eye a
 little before 0500 UTC, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of
 934 mb. These data still support an initial intensity of 125 kt.
 The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in
 Matthew before 1200 UTC this morning.
 
 Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still
 moving a little east of due north or 005/8 kt.  Matthew is expected
 to move generally northward around the western periphery of a
 deep-layer ridge today and tonight.  This will bring the center of
 Matthew near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti within the
 next few hours, and near the eastern tip of Cuba later today. After
 moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn
 north-northwestward, then northwestward by 48 hours, as the western
 portion of the aforementioned ridge builds westward to the north of
 the hurricane.  Between days 3 and 4, Matthew should round the
 western periphery of the ridge and turn northward, then
 north-northeastward ahead of a trough approaching the east
 coast of the United States late in the period.  Most of the
 dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida
 and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5.  The NHC
 track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted
 slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus
 of the ECMWF and GFS.  Users are reminded not to focus on the exact
 forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous
 storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.
 
 Although some slight weakening due to land interaction is possible
 today, warm waters and a favorable upper-level wind pattern should
 allow Matthew to remain a very strong hurricane during the next
 couple of days.  Gradual weakening is predicted later in the
 forecast period due to an increase in southwesterly shear and
 cooler SSTs, however Matthew is forecast to remain a hurricane
 during the entire 5 day period.
 
 KEY MESSAGES:
 
 1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
 surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
 portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
 Bahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services
 and other government officials in those countries.
 
 2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
 week.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely later
 this morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida
 Keys.
 
 3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
 Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
 weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too
 soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
 the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north.  At a minimum,
 very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of
 the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0900Z 17.8N  74.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 19.2N  74.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 21.0N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 22.8N  75.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 24.6N  76.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 28.0N  79.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  08/0600Z 31.7N  79.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  09/0600Z 35.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi