211 
 WTNT44 KNHC 030851
 TCDAT4
 
 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
 500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016
 
 The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission that ended shortly
 before 0600 UTC did not find flight-level or surface winds as high
 as reported during the previous flight yesterday afternoon.  It is
 not clear from microwave imagery if the reduction in winds is the
 result of an eyewall replacement.  There was no evidence of a double
 wind maximum in the aircraft data, but the crew reported that the
 eyewall was open to the southwest.  Using a blend of the aircraft
 data and recent satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity
 has been reduced to 115 kt for this advisory.  The center of Matthew
 has recently passed over NOAA buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean
 Sea, which reported a minimum pressure of 943 mb and light winds
 around 0650 UTC.
 
 Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving northward
 or 360/5 kt.  The hurricane is expected to move generally northward
 around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
 west-central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and little
 change was needed to the NHC forecast through 48 hours.   Once
 Matthew moves near the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, it is
 forecast to turn northwestward or north-northwestward in
 southeasterly flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level
 low/trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
 Caribbean Sea.  The model guidance is in relatively good agreement
 through 72 hours, but begin to diverge by days 4 and 5.  The UKMET
 which was previously the western outlier, has shifted eastward this
 cycle, and is now close to the GFS.  The 0000 UTC ECMWF trended
 westward and that model is now along the western edge of the
 guidance envelope.  The NHC track has been nudged westward at days
 4 and 5, and lies close to the GFS and UKMET solutions.  This is a
 bit west of the model consensus since the higher quality models
 are on that side of the guidance envelope.
 
 Matthew is forecast to remain in low shear and over warm water
 while it moves northward toward the Greater Antilles.  Some
 restrengthening is possible, but fluctuations in intensity are
 likely due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. Some
 weakening is forecast when the hurricane interacts with land in a
 couple of days, however Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
 hurricane throughout much of the forecast period.
 
 Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
 Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane
 impacts there.  It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew
 might affect the remainder of the United States east coast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0900Z 15.2N  74.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 16.2N  74.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 17.9N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 19.7N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 21.4N  74.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  06/0600Z 24.6N  75.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  07/0600Z 27.6N  76.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  08/0600Z 30.8N  77.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown