513 
 WTNT45 KNHC 252033
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
  
 HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
 FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW MOVED
 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE WHILE WEAKENING.
 THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE A TIGHT INNER CORE AND WE ARE BASICALLY
 TRACKING AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC
 CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE WITH NUMEROUS
 RAINBANDS FROM THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
 TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS
 AND GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...
 WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
  
 MATTHEW HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN YET...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
 AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
 COLLAPSE SOON AND MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE
 YUCATAN PENINSULA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  IN
 FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MEANDERING
 ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
  
 WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF MATTHEW...
 TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      25/2100Z 17.4N  89.4W    30 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  91.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N  91.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N  91.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N  90.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA