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 247 
 WTNT44 KNHC 100234
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004
  
 STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN STRIPPED MATTHEW OF ITS DEEP
 CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE AMPLE SHIP
 REPORTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...SO THE ADVISORY
 INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW.  WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
 CURRENTLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...IT WILL BE
 DIFFICULT FOR MATTHEW TO STRENGTHEN APPRECIABLY PRIOR TO
 LANDFALL...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY
 MAKE LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MATTHEW
 CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL SURGE AND INLAND RAIN FLOODING.
 
 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY...WHILE THERE WAS
 DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE...MATTHEW TURNED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE
 TO A DEEPER LAYER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.  NOW THAT MATTHEW IS ONLY
 A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THE EASTWARD MOTION HAS STOPPED...AND OVER
 THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MATTHEW HAS MOVED ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD. 
 AS CONVECTION COMES AND GOES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL JUMPS TO THE
 LEFT AND STEPS TO THE RIGHT...BUT SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 REMAIN STRONG...THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE...
 AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE EASTWARD JOG
 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0300Z 27.7N  91.3W    35 KT
  12HR VT     10/1200Z 29.0N  90.8W    35 KT
  24HR VT     11/0000Z 30.9N  90.4W    25 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     11/1200Z 33.3N  90.6W    20 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     12/0000Z 35.5N  91.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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