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 660 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 010235
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
 1000 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
 
 The convective organization has continued to deteriorate, but it
 hasn't quite reached the point for the system to be declared a
 remnant low pressure system. However, the current ragged appearance
 of the shallow convection coupled with west-southwesterly vertical
 wind shear of at least 20 kt should cause the depression to
 degenerate into a remnant low within the next 6 to 12 hours. The
 official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
 the latest SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance.
 
 Marty still possesses a fairly tight low-level circulation as noted
 in the last few visible satellite images and a 2132 UTC SSMI
 microwave image, which has made the system fairly easy to locate.
 As a result, the initial motion is now 285/07 kt. A mid-level ridge
 located over northwestern and central Mexico is expected to force
 Marty on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple
 of days until the shallow cyclone dissipates by 72 hours. The NHC
 track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous track
 and lies close to the consensus model TCVE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0300Z 16.6N 103.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  01/1200Z 16.7N 104.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  02/0000Z 17.0N 106.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  02/1200Z 17.2N 107.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  03/0000Z 17.5N 109.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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