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 653 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 291434
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
 
 Satellite imagery and data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco
 indicate that Marty continues to lose organization due to the
 effects of 30 kt of westerly shear.  The convection is occurring in
 episodic bursts, and the low-level center is located near the
 southwestern edge of the bursts.  The initial intensity is decreased
 to 50 kt based on 1200 UTC satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
 and SAB and the subsequent decay in the cloud pattern.
 
 Marty continues to drift erratically with the initial motion now
 120/3.  The mid- to upper-level trough north of the system is
 starting to weaken and split, with an upper-level low developing
 northwest of Marty and a mid-level ridge developing north of the
 storm.  This evolution should result in Marty beginning a west-
 northwestward to westward motion during the next 24-48 hours, and
 all the guidance that does not quickly dissipate the cyclone
 supports this scenario.  The new forecast track is a little south of
 the previous track based on the initial position, and it is also
 faster in moving Marty westward.  However, it is slower than the
 model consensus.  On the new forecast track, it is less likely that
 the center of Marty will make landfall on the coast of Mexico.
 
 The dynamical models forecast the current shear to continue for the
 next 36-48 hours, which should cause Marty to steadily, if not
 rapidly, weaken.  The new intensity forecast, which is in best
 agreement with the LGEM model, is an update of the previous forecast
 in calling for Marty to weaken to a tropical depression in 24-36
 hours and then degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours.  It
 should be noted that this forecast lies on the upper edge of the
 intensity guidance envelope, so Marty could weaken faster than
 currently forecast.  One extra day has been added to the remnant low
 phase based on the forecasts from the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian
 models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/1500Z 16.2N 101.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  30/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  30/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 16.8N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 16.9N 104.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  02/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  03/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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