058 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 282045
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
 400 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
 
 Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data was very helpful with both
 the positioning and intensity of Marty this afternoon.  The data
 show that Marty has become a hurricane, with SFMR winds of 70 kt
 observed, which will be used as the initial wind speed.
 
 The aircraft fix position was about 30 n mi to the northeast of my
 previous estimate.  Consequently, based on the aircraft fix data and
 a longer-term motion -- Marty appears to be moving northeastward at
 about 5 kt.  Guidance has all shifted northeastward, with the
 hurricane likely to move very near the coast of Mexico on Tuesday,
 and a number of models move the cyclone inland.  While the consensus
 is still offshore, the official forecast follows the trend of the
 guidance by bringing Marty within 20 n mi of the coast. This change
 necessitates a Hurricane Warning for the coast of south-central
 Mexico.  If the cyclone survives land interaction with the high
 terrain, a ridge is forecast to build over Mexico, which should
 cause Marty to move westward or west-northwestward after 48 hours.
 
 Increasing vertical wind shear is expected to cause a gradual
 weakening of Marty by Tuesday. This trend should then continue
 throughout the remainder of the forecast period while Marty remains
 in an area of moderate or strong southwesterly shear, and
 potentially interacts with land.  Most of the guidance, except the
 ECMWF, continues to shows the cyclone dissipating by day 5 due to
 the strong shear. The forecast intensity is raised in the short term
 due to the initial increase in wind speed, then is blended with the
 intensity consensus at long range.  It is possible that Marty could
 weaken a lot faster than shown below if it gets closer to Mexico.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 16.7N 102.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 16.8N 101.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 17.3N 101.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 17.5N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  01/1800Z 17.8N 105.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  02/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake