134 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 270234
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014
 
 Marie's eye has completely filled in and disappeared in infrared
 satellite imagery while convective tops continue to warm.  Dvorak
 numbers are slowly decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered
 to 80 kt on this advisory.  Marie is now moving over SSTs near 25C,
 and the hurricane will be over water as cold as 22C in about 48
 hours.  Therefore, a gradual spin-down of the circulation is
 expected during the next couple of days, and the cold water is
 likely to cause Marie to lose its deep convection and become
 post-tropical by late Thursday.  The updated NHC intensity forecast
 is very similar to the previous one, and closely follows the
 intensity consensus.
 
 The hurricane has continued to turn a little to the left, and the
 initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  An unseasonably strong
 mid-tropospheric high is forecast to develop along the southern
 California/northern Baja coast during the next day or two, and this
 feature should cause Marie to turn toward the north-northwest by
 day 3.  Once Marie becomes a remnant low, lower-level ridging to the
 north of the cyclone will cause it to slow down and turn westward
 by the end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is tightly
 clustered, especially through 72 hours, and no significant changes
 were required to the official track forecast.
 
 Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
 California peninsula and have reached the southern California
 coast.  These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days
 and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as
 minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0300Z 21.6N 121.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  27/1200Z 22.4N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  28/0000Z 23.6N 125.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  28/1200Z 25.0N 128.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  29/0000Z 26.5N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  30/0000Z 29.5N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  31/0000Z 30.0N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  01/0000Z 29.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg