686 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 262035
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014
 
 Infrared satellite does not suggest much has changed with Marie
 during the day, with the cyclone still displaying a small cloud-
 filled eye.  Microwave data do show that the inner eyewall has
 become closed again, so it appears the recent weakening trend has
 halted.  Satellite estimates are mostly unchanged from 6 hours ago,
 so the initial wind speed will stay 85 kt.  Although the inner core
 structure appears to have improved, Marie is moving quickly across
 much cooler waters, which should cause the hurricane to weaken
 soon.  Guidance shows a slower decay than the last cycle, which is
 hard to believe given that Marie will be moving over waters cooler
 than 24C in 24 hours and will probably lose all convection within 48
 hours.  Thus the new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the last
 one, but now lies on the lower side of the guidance envelope.
 
 The initial motion has shifted a bit leftward--295/13 kt.  A
 mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue steering Marie on a
 west-northwest to northwest track for the next couple of days.
 The hurricane is expected to slow and turn toward the north-
 northwest by day 4 due to it reaching the western periphery of the
 ridge, but then drift westward as the low-level ridge rebuilds to
 the northwest of Marie or its remnants.  The official forecast is
 only slightly modified to the west at long range to account for the
 latest guidance.
 
 Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
 California peninsula, and are now reaching the southern California
 coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days,
 and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as
 minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/2100Z 21.1N 120.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 21.9N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 23.1N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 24.3N 127.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 25.8N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  29/1800Z 28.9N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  30/1800Z 30.2N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  31/1800Z 30.0N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake