035 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 260239
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014
 
 Satellite data indicate that Marie has gradually been weakening.
 Inner-core deep convection has been slowly warming, with coldest
 tops now south of center.  Additionally, the eye has become less
 defined and has cooled significantly since the last advisory.  A
 2210 UTC TRMM overpass shows that the hurricane has also been
 maintaining a classic concentric eyewall structure - a double
 eyewall within 60 n mi of the center, with the inner eyewall
 possibly in the process of collapsing. A third, less-defined eyewall
 was noted at around 110 n mi radius, separated by a prominent dry
 slot. The initial intensity for this advisory is reduced to 100 kt,
 based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
 Continued slow weakening is expected in the short term due to
 gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and the possibility of
 the current eyewall replacement evolving further. Even though the
 vertical shear is forecast to be light, Marie will be crossing the
 26 deg C isotherm in 12-18 hours and should reach sub-24 deg C
 waters by 48 hours. With the thermodynamic environment worsening so
 quickly, near-rapid weakening is likely after about 24 hours until
 the cyclone becomes post-tropical by day 3.  The cyclone will then
 continue to spin down over even cooler waters, but the remnant
 circulation could linger beyond the end of the forecast period.  The
 intensity forecast has been lowered a bit relative to the previous
 one due mostly to the greater rate of weakening observed since the
 last advisory.
 
 Marie is continuing on a steady northwestward course of 305/11.
 Mid-level ridging extending west-southwestward from the eastern
 United States in the subtropical eastern Pacific should continue to
 steer Marie on a west-northwestward to northwestward path during
 the next few days.  After losing its deep convection by day 3 or so,
 the cyclone's track should bend north-northwestward or even
 northward and slow down.  There continues to be little change with
 regard to the track guidance and little in the way of modifications
 was made to the previous track.  The new NHC track is in the center
 of guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.
 
 Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large
 swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight
 and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
 during the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the
 coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
 surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  26/0300Z 19.2N 116.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  26/1200Z 20.2N 118.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  27/0000Z 21.3N 120.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  27/1200Z 22.4N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  28/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  29/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  30/0000Z 29.4N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  31/0000Z 30.8N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain