Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 086 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 240841
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014
 
 Marie continues to rapidly intensify.  The eye of the hurricane has
 become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold
 cloud tops surround the center.  The inner core convective pattern
 is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the
 south of the center.  The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a
 category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of
 T6.0 from SAB.
 
 The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and
 warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening
 during the next day or so.  However, it should be noted that with
 major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due
 to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not
 easily forecast.  The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a
 couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture
 and sea surface temperatures gradually lower.  A more rapid
 weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when
 Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26
 degrees Celsius.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
 previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar
 trend.
 
 The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on
 the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge.  The track
 forecast is fairly straight forward.  A west-northwest to northwest
 motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north
 of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism.  The NHC track
 forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
 the multi-model consensus.
 
 A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has
 expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted
 accordingly.  Although Marie is expected to remain well off the
 coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect
 southwestern Mexico through tomorrow.  These swells, which are
 likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to
 spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few
 days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
  24H  25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
  36H  25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
  48H  26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
  72H  27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  96H  28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for MARIE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman