000 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 240248
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014
 
 Marie's cloud pattern has become better organized since the last
 advisory.  Pulsating convection within the cyclone's large central
 dense overcast has become more symmetric, and late-day visible
 satellite imagery showed an intermittent proto-eye.  Several
 well-defined bands also wrap well around the circulation of Marie.
 A 2106 UTC GMI pass revealed a significant increase in the
 organization of hurricane's inner core since this morning, with a
 closed low-level ring of convection present then. An AMSU intensity
 estimate of 86 kt preceded a T5.0/90 kt Dvorak intensity estimate
 from TAFB at 0000 UTC. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, the
 upper end of these estimates, based on some further increase in
 organization of the cyclone's satellite presentation since that
 time.
 
 Marie has been traveling on a west-northwestward course or 295/12,
 with the current motion to the right of that 24 hours ago. Marie
 should be steered around the southwestern periphery of an expansive
 mid-level ridge stretching from the eastern United States into the
 eastern Pacific during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
 hurricane will reach the western edge of this ridge and temporary
 slow down before the direction of motion becomes northwesterly
 through the remainder of the forecast period.  The track guidance
 remains in very good agreement this cycle, and the forecast track
 was shifted only slightly to the right of the previous one by virtue
 of Marie's nearly northwesterly initial motion.
 
 While large-scale conditions generally remain quite conducive
 for additional intensification, there is some disagreement with
 regard to how much northeasterly vertical shear is currently
 affecting Marie. The UW-CIMSS analyses indicate no more than 5-10 kt
 of northeasterly shear while SHIPS model output has consistently
 indicated around 15 kt.  Regardless, the inner core structure
 of the hurricane and the favorable environmental conditions should
 allow for Marie's strengthening to major hurricane status, unless
 its intensification is interrupted by an eyewall replacement.
 Interestingly, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows little
 additional intensification except the SHIPS output, possibly in
 response to the less-than-optimal shear. Even though the shear is
 forecast to diminish after 72 hours, sea surface temperatures along
 Marie's path should rapidly decrease and cause a rapid spin-down of
 the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the
 intensity guidance through day 3 except the SHIPS model output but
 approaches the multi-model consensus IVCN after that time.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  25/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  25/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
  48H  26/0000Z 18.8N 115.6W  115 KT 135 MPH
  72H  27/0000Z 21.4N 119.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  28/0000Z 24.0N 124.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  29/0000Z 26.7N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain