454 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 062037
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008
 
 MARIE HAS LOST ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME
 INTERMITTENT FLAREUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-OCCUR WITHIN THE
 REMNANT CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER SINCE THE
 SYSTEM LACKS PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT CAN NO
 LONGER BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ADVISORIES ARE BEING
 TERMINATED AT THIS TIME.
 
 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM AROUND 1400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM
 WINDS WERE 25 TO 30 KT.  ALLOWING FOR SOME FURTHER SPINDOWN OF THE
 CYCLONE SINCE THAT TIME LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25
 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE REMAINING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
 ENVIRONMENT.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST OR 280/3.  THE TRACK MODELS
 INSIST ON A CYCLONICALLY LOOPING MOTION WITHIN THE FLOW WEST OF
 NORBERT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN
 THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
 MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE
 PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
 
 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE PLEASE SEE
 HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
 AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/2100Z 18.9N 123.7W    25 KT
  12HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.1N 125.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     08/0600Z 17.3N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH