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 311 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 050837
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
  
 MARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...
 MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  AN AVERAGE OF THE T
 AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY IS NEAR 40
 KT.  ALTHOUGH SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT BE DECREASING
 ANY FURTHER...MARIE IS EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT...
 AND THEREFORE A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY IS FORECAST...IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  THE STATISTICAL
 MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING TREND WHILE THE HWRF AND
 GFDL SOMEWHAT SLOWER.
 
 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT MARIE BRIEFLY DRIFTED
 EASTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT MAY HAVE TURNED BACK TO THE WEST. 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS OFFICIALLY ESTIMATED AS STATIONARY FOR THIS
 ADVISORY.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
 MODELS TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MARIE...AND IF THE SYSTEM
 IS DEEP ENOUGH IT WOULD RESPOND BY TURNING WESTWARD.  AS MARIE
 DECAYS...HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR A TURN TO THE
 SOUTHWEST AND THEN PERHAPS BACK TO THE EAST TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL
 STORM NORBERT.  THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRONG VORTEX ON A 
 PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK... BUT INTERESTINGLY THE GFS ENSEMBLE
 MEAN DOES NOT...AND NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN
 TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
 EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF
 THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/0900Z 18.9N 122.0W    40 KT
  12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N 122.3W    35 KT
  24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 123.1W    30 KT
  36HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 124.0W    30 KT
  48HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N 124.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
 
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