Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 627 
 WTNT44 KNHC 131438
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2011
  
 THE STRUCTURE OF MARIA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS MORNING. THE 
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SHEAR AS SHOWN IN THE SHIPS MODEL
 AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF MARIA CAUSING THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-
 LEVEL WINDS NEVER BECOME IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE
 GLOBAL MODELS...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
 MARIA AHEAD OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST
 COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
 MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM
 MODELS. MARIA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL
 MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
 LOW BY 96 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/05. MARIA WILL ACCELERATE
 NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD TURN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH
 BY 48 HOURS. A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS
 AS MARIA IS ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE GUIDANCE
 REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...LYING TO THE
 RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BETWEEN THE RELIABLE ECMWF
 AND GFS MODELS. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/1500Z 22.1N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 23.6N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  14/1200Z 26.1N  68.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  15/0000Z 29.2N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  15/1200Z 33.2N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  16/1200Z 43.0N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for MARIA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman