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 238 
 WTNT44 KNHC 092039
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
 500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011
 
 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF MARIA SINCE THIS
 MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON REVEALED
 SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS
 OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM
 GUADELOUPE SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE
 CONVECTION.  BEFORE DEPARTING MARIA...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
 AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...WHICH
 SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW
 INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
 ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36
 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. 
 HOWEVER...THE CURRENT LACK OF INNER-CORE STRUCTURE SUGGESTS 
 THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED BY
 SOME OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
 ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE
 ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
 INTENSIFICATION. 
 
 IT APPEARS THAT MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
 SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS LOCATED TO
 THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
 IMAGERY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SURFACE CENTER REFORMS
 CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...
 THIS MAY BE WHY THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
 THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PARTLY FOR THIS REASON...THE NEW TRACK HAS
 BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE
 FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
 BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING MARIA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
 NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS
 THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 AS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/2100Z 14.8N  58.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 15.8N  60.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 17.2N  62.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z 18.7N  64.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z 20.0N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  12/1800Z 22.7N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  13/1800Z 25.5N  71.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  14/1800Z 31.0N  71.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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