375 
 WTNT44 KNHC 081443
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
 1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011
  
 MARIA IS MOVING VERY FAST...AT ABOUT 19-22 KNOTS...AND PROBABLY NO
 LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
 WILL CHECK IF THAT IS THE CASE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
 IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND
 CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP
 CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE
 WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE RAINBANDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS AND THIS
 IS THE INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
 HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
 WAVE...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
 REGENERATE AS IT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST
 OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS
 HOSTILE AS THEY WERE INDICATING IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NONE OF THE
 GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW AN AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
 CARIBBEAN. 
 
 MARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
 EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS
 FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
 AFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
 ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD
 SPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
 ARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
 BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/1500Z 13.0N  51.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 13.0N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 13.8N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 14.5N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  10/1200Z 16.0N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  11/1200Z 19.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  12/1200Z 22.5N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  13/1200Z 25.0N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA