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 670 
 WTNT44 KNHC 091435
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
  
 HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT MARIA HAS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT
 50-55 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS THAT ARE
 UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT
 FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE COMES AND GOES ON SATELLITE
 PICTURES WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE
 CENTER. A COMBINATION OF COOL UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES AND SSTS
 HOLDING STEADY NEAR 24-25C HAS PROBABLY HELD OFF THE EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION OF MARIA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
 DIAGRAMS FROM FSU WERE CORRECT YESTERDAY IN DELAYING THE
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA AND NOW SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION
 SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
 ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 988 MB IN ACCORDANCE WITH A PRESSURE FROM BUOY
 44901 OF 992.3 MB A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS
 ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS
 AND CIRA ARE ALSO LOWER THAN 990 MB.
 
 MARIA IS SLOWLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING 050/13. THIS ACCELERATION
 SHOULD CONTINUE AS MARIA LOSES STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 AND IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST
 CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE
 IN A DAY OR TWO... WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS LIKELY IN
 PLACE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL
 EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. AT THE END OF
 THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM WILL PROBABLY BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW
 OVER SCANDINAVIA. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AT THE INITIAL TIME
 USING QUIKSCAT WITH FORECAST RADII USING THE GFS MODEL DURING THE
 EXTRATROPICAL STAGE OF MARIA. 
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/1500Z 40.9N  42.7W    55 KT
  12HR VT     10/0000Z 42.3N  40.7W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     10/1200Z 45.1N  38.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     11/0000Z 48.5N  35.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     11/1200Z 52.0N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     12/1200Z 59.0N  26.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     13/1200Z 65.0N   8.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     14/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
  
 $$
 
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