013 
 WTNT44 KNHC 060900
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
  
 IT APPEARS THAT MARIA PEAKED IN INTENSITY ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO. THE NOW
 IS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND OPEN TO THE WEST...AND CLOUD
 TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
 IMPRESSIVE...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS
 NOW ENTERING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY CURRENT
 ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 MARIA IS MOVING AT 020/06. THE NARROW RIDGE MID-LEVEL TO NORTH OF
 MARIA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WHICH
 SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER.
 BEYOND 24 HOURS...AND APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
 FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND
 RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS.
 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
 SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
 NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
 
 DRY AIR...COOLER WATER...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE MARIA.
 STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME
 INCREASED BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY
 STEADY INTENSITY FOR THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0900Z 33.3N  56.4W    90 KT
  12HR VT     06/1800Z 34.2N  55.5W    80 KT
  24HR VT     07/0600Z 35.6N  53.9W    70 KT
  36HR VT     07/1800Z 36.9N  52.1W    60 KT
  48HR VT     08/0600Z 38.2N  49.8W    55 KT
  72HR VT     09/0600Z 41.0N  44.3W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     10/0600Z 45.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     11/0600Z 50.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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